Waiting for Godot … or trading the Euro

Posted by on Aug 2, 2012 in Commentary, Market News, News

Waiting for Godot … or trading the Euro

Or is it waiting for Mario? The minutes coming from the meeting of the Fed yesterday did not give the markets the stimulus they were hoping for.

There was a general acknowledgement that things are slow in the USA and everything is under close scrutiny. This could be loosely translated as jam tomorrow. No stimulus today, but maybe tomorrow. All eyes turn to the ECB now.

After Mario Draghi’s comments last week, the market expects to see just what was meant by “everything in our power to save the Euro and it will be enough”. A drop in interest rates won’t qualify, as that is just business as usual.

There has to be something of a “shock and awe” content to today’s announcements and the implementation has to be NOW, not sometime in the future once a new treaty is ratified by all member states.

If Mario delivers, we can expect a rally in the value of the Euro. Otherwise, it is likely to start heading south again. Until the non-farm payroll figures tomorrow that is. My weekend has started already, I’m an observer on the sidelines through this and will resume trading the Euro once the dust settles again.