A little optimism
Optimism in the markets seems as rare as sunshine in a British summer this year. But as the sun comes out, the temperature soars. Phew, it’s hot right now. The same is true with optimism and the Euro. A few comments this morning about changing the status of the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) by an ECB council member sent the Euro soaring as well. Ewald Nowotny suggested the ESM could be classified as a bank, although no formal discussions have taken place with this objective. The optimism from this simple statement had the Euro appreciating fast against the Dollar. Why does this...
Read MoreJust like buses – central banks announcements
Last week was notable for news affecting the value of major currencies. We waited all week for announcements from central banks and just like buses, three came along at once. The Bank of England’s announcement to print another £50 billion was anticipated. The markets knew that was going to happen. At the moment of the announcement, a small blip in the value of GBPUSD just confirmed the inevitable. The European Central Bank then duly obliged with a quarter point cut from 1%. This bit was expected by the market. The Euro went into free fall on the back of the ECB reducing the overnight...
Read MoreAfter the Euro summit
After the Euro Summit How quickly news drops out of the headlines. It was only a week ago that Eurozone leaders met for another in the series of Euro summits to save the Euro. Expectations were low, lower than a snakes belly in fact. Then something miraculous happened, an announcement of progress towards banking union. The markets immediately pushed the value of the Euro higher. Banking union is one of the pillars required to support a currency. One currency, one central bank standing behind it, with the central bank in turn monitoring and regulating the activities of the individual banks in...
Read MoreCentral bank power
When it comes to trading currencies in the forex markets, there is no-one to fear more than a central bank and comments made by them. Right now, the Federal Reserve (FED) are in committee, determining whether to intervene in the US economy. If they do, they will decide how and when to do it. In a market where trillions of dollars are traded daily, few institutions can affect the value of a currency as much as a central bank. An example earlier today is sterling (GBPUSD) as the minutes from the Bank of England meeting were released. The minutes had more impact on the currency than the actual...
Read MoreMirror, mirror on the wall, who’s the fairest currency of them all?
It’s been an interesting few days. Friday started with gloomy news from the UK manufacturing sector. GBP unloved as the UK remains recession bound. Then the news from the USA. Non-farm payroll figures upstaged the UK in their disappointment. Cue USD joining the ugly currency parade. So now we have EUR, GBP and USD in this parade. The Swiss National Bank decided a while ago to limit the value of the Swiss Franc by linking it to the value of the Euro. The setting of a “floor” rate of exchange effectively fixes the value of the Swiss Franc, so better add CHF as well. With four...
Read MoreWhat is a Euro worth?
I spent yesterday with many other traders at a trading conference in London. An enjoyable day in good company listening to some very good presentations and panel discussions. Naturally, there were many questions about the Euro and Greece’s (future) participation in it. It is fair to say that pretty much everyone in the room (there were a couple of hundred or more) had a negative view of the value of the Euro. But why? What is a fair price? Hasn’t all of the downside risk already been priced in? Wouldn’t the Euro be stronger without Greece? Once you start asking these...
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