British summer and Draghi
A week ago, Mario Draghi, the head of the ECB was in London giving a speech. During that speech, he heaped support on the Euro project and actions in the pipeline to support it. It was not a case of doing something, but whatever was done would result in the end of the Euro crisis and there was no need to short the Euro any more. Wow. A week later, the ECB held its monthly meeting and was widely expected to do something. No-one knew what exactly, but it had to do something. The speech of last week caused a huge rally in the value of the Euro and a significant easing in the interest rates paid...
Read MoreWaiting for Godot … or trading the Euro
Or is it waiting for Mario? The minutes coming from the meeting of the Fed yesterday did not give the markets the stimulus they were hoping for. There was a general acknowledgement that things are slow in the USA and everything is under close scrutiny. This could be loosely translated as jam tomorrow. No stimulus today, but maybe tomorrow. All eyes turn to the ECB now. After Mario Draghi’s comments last week, the market expects to see just what was meant by “everything in our power to save the Euro and it will be enough”. A drop in interest rates won’t qualify, as...
Read MoreUK GDP and the Olympics
UK GDP figures show a third consecutive quarter with the economy shrinking, or as the official term goes, negative growth. The quarter on quarter drop of 0.7% was far greater than the 0.2% anticipated by the markets. Naturally, the value of sterling fell after the announcement. I don’t know about you, but I have some sympathy for those claiming the weather slowed the economy down. With the wettest April and June for more than a century, it was hardly surprising that construction output fell. I can just imagine all of the muddy waterlogged building sites at a virtual standstill. I have...
Read MoreA little optimism
Optimism in the markets seems as rare as sunshine in a British summer this year. But as the sun comes out, the temperature soars. Phew, it’s hot right now. The same is true with optimism and the Euro. A few comments this morning about changing the status of the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) by an ECB council member sent the Euro soaring as well. Ewald Nowotny suggested the ESM could be classified as a bank, although no formal discussions have taken place with this objective. The optimism from this simple statement had the Euro appreciating fast against the Dollar. Why does this...
Read MoreJust like buses – central banks announcements
Last week was notable for news affecting the value of major currencies. We waited all week for announcements from central banks and just like buses, three came along at once. The Bank of England’s announcement to print another £50 billion was anticipated. The markets knew that was going to happen. At the moment of the announcement, a small blip in the value of GBPUSD just confirmed the inevitable. The European Central Bank then duly obliged with a quarter point cut from 1%. This bit was expected by the market. The Euro went into free fall on the back of the ECB reducing the overnight...
Read MoreCentral bank power
When it comes to trading currencies in the forex markets, there is no-one to fear more than a central bank and comments made by them. Right now, the Federal Reserve (FED) are in committee, determining whether to intervene in the US economy. If they do, they will decide how and when to do it. In a market where trillions of dollars are traded daily, few institutions can affect the value of a currency as much as a central bank. An example earlier today is sterling (GBPUSD) as the minutes from the Bank of England meeting were released. The minutes had more impact on the currency than the actual...
Read More