Posts Tagged "ecb"

Happy New Year

Posted by on Dec 31, 2012 in Commentary, Featured, Market News

Happy New Year

As a trader taking a backwards look at 2012, I can only conclude that it has been a strange kind of year. In the UK, the stock market is already closed for 2012. Anyone who has read some of my previous posts will guess how I am going to summarise 2012 though. A year when much changed and little was achieved. After three years of crisis, Greece and the problems of the Euro are firmly on the back burner as the world watches the USA head ever closer to the so called fiscal cliff. Does that mean the problems of the Eurozone are over? Have they been miraculously fixed? The only judgement call I can make is not yet. 2013 offers many more opportunities for European politicians (and others) to sit on their hands as central banks take centre stage once again, leaving the politicians to play catch up. With elections in the offing in Italy and Germany during 2013, not too much will change. The one thing we learned in 2012 was that central banks and central bank governors are amongst the most powerful political leaders on the planet. Sometimes, more so than heads of state. So for 2013, I would suggest any trader serious about making money and not getting caught out my market movements should pay attention to the central banks and bankers, finding out when they are due to meet, speak and give press conferences. Indeed, following recent elections, the Japanese central bank will be in the spotlight in early 2013. With the negotiations on the fiscal cliff already well into the eleventh hour, there is little prospect of any meaningful agreement. There will be fudges and compromises, but nothing long term anytime soon. So the US economy will be in the hands of the US treasury and the Fed top sort out. Doubtless they will come up with something, and the US economy will continue. But watch for the fall out and eventual fixes. Fun ahead then for 2013 and prosperity for careful traders. I wish you all a prosperous and happy New Year....

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ECB impact on GBPUSD

Posted by on Jul 27, 2012 in Commentary, Featured, Market News

ECB impact on GBPUSD

ECB Impact on GBPUSD On 20 June, I wrote about central bank power and the impact the ECB can have on the currency value. This was in evidence again this week on Thursday, when Mario Draghi, the head of the ECB, stated they would do “whatever it takes” to save the Euro. I have chosen to illustrate the impact of his speech on GBPUSD, rather than the Euro. The 4 hour candle on EURUSD was 199 pips in range. The candle length for Cable was  232 pips. In either case, very significant movements. One of the “excuses” for weak GDP figures in the UK has been the turmoil in Europe and the Eurozone. For any disbelievers, the market response to Mario Draghi’s speech provides compelling evidence of the impact of the Euro on the value of sterling and the UK economy. For anyone watching the market this Friday afternoon, the value of the Euro has continued to rise on the back of weak GDP figures from the USA, with EURUSD now trading more than 300 pips above the lows established earlier in the week. What do you predict for the ECB...

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